March Madness Picks & Best Bets 2026 NCAA Tournament - First Round & First Four
The Road To Indianapolis begins Tuesday with the so-called First Four games of the NCAA Tournament. This year, March Madness ends in April with the National Championship Game on April 6. After checking the latest college basketball odds, be sure to check our March Madness Picks & Best Bets below once the bracket is set.
Recent NCAA Tournament history has been very kind to No. 1 seeds.
In all, 17 of the past 25 and 7 of the past 8 national champions were No. 1 seeds. The most recent exception was Connecticut in 2023. Those Huskies entered the tournament as a No. 4 seed. Of course, UConn proceeded to win back-to-back national titles as Danny Hurley kept the bulk of his team intact.
Promo Code: BOOKIESBG150
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
RELATED: March Madness Perfect Bracket Odds Compared To Powerball, Mega Millions
RELATED: March Madness Betting Guide 2026: NCAA Odds, Picks & Strategy
Want a bigger dog than the 2023 Huskies – in terms of seeding – to win a national title? You’ll have to go back to the 2014 UConn Huskies. Those pups were a No. 7 seed before running the table and cutting down the nets at Jerry World. Those Huskies were +9500 to win the Tournament.
Three No. 3 seeds have won the Tourname since 2000, and one No. 2 seed has won during that time.
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Game-By-Game Predictions
Here are our predictions for each of the First Four and First Round Games of the NCAA Men’s Tournament:
First Four
Tuesday - Dayton, Ohio
UMBC (-2.5) vs. Howard (+124)
Best Bet: UMBC -2.5. UMBC enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 12 straight games by an average of 16.8 points, swept the America East regular season and tournament titles.
Texas (-1.5) vs. N.C. State (-105)
Best Bet: NC State +1.5. Texas lost 5 of its final 6 games, including a first-round SEC Tournament exit to Ole Miss. The Horns are 0-6 as an 8-seed or worse since 2005. NC State's elite offensive efficiency and tournament pedigree after their 2024 Final Four run give them the edge. Take the points in a close one here.
Promo Code: BOOKIES
Must be 21+ and present in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, NC, OH, TN, or VA. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, LA, MD, NC, OH, VA). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), Call (800)-327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org in MA. Call or text REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).
Wednesday - Dayton, Ohio
Lehigh (-2.5) vs. Prairie View (+130)
Best Bet: Prairie View +2.5. The Panthers entered the SWAC Tournament as the No. 8 seed with a 9-9 conference record — a genuinely .500 team in a weaker conference — and pulled off surprising upsets to claim the automatic bid. The line has moved from 1.5 to 2.5. Lehigh captured the Patriot League title and has won 6 straight. Another coin flip that demands you take the points.
SMU (-7.5) vs. Miami (Ohio) (+250)
Best Bet: Miami +7.5. A 31-1 record and feel-good story wasn't enough to get Miami into the field of 64. This amounts to a quasi-home game just 40 miles from campus in Dayton, and the RedHawks - who are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season - are getting 7.5 points. The joint will be jumping.
First Round - East Region
Thursday - Greenville, S.C.
1 Duke (-28.5) vs. 16 Siena (+3500)
Best Bet: Siena +28.5. Duke comes in at 32-2 and has won 11 straight, while Siena limps in at 23-11 after winning the MAAC Tournament as a 3-seed. But Siena keeps it close . . . enough.
8 Ohio St. (-3.5) vs. 9 TCU (+180)
Best Bet: TCU +3.5,. This is a true toss-up 8/9 game, but TCU finished the regular season on a torrid run, winning 8 of its last 9 games. Its defense makes the difference.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit http://gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit http://ccpg.org (CT), or visit http://www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in NH/OR/ONT/PR. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Min. $5 first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Plus, upon qualifying bet placement, get 1 100% Profit Boost Token, valid only for a NCAA Tournament Winner bet. Max. Bet: $10. Profit Boost Tokens are single-use and expire on 4/6/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Must select Token BEFORE placing bet. Boost only applies to winnings. Ends 4/6/26 11:59 PM ET. Terms: https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos.
Friday - San Diego
5 St. John's (-9.5) vs. 12 N. Iowa (+330)
Best Bet: Northern Iowa +9.5. The Johnnies smoked UConn 72-52 at MSG Saturday to repeat as Big East champs. The reward for Rick Pitino's team is a No. 5 seed, 2,852 miles away from home. No. 12 seeds love sneaky first-round covers. Northern Iowa's big, physical play matches well here. Take the points.
4 Kansas (-12.5) vs. 13 Cal Baptist (+400)
Best Bet: Cal Baptist +400. Cal Baptist is making its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. Someone has to be Cinderella in this tournament. Why not the Lancers and Dominique Daniels Jr., who leads all mid-major players in scoring at 23.2 PPG? Bill Self's team remains primed for March self-immolation.
Thursday - Buffalo, N.Y.
6 Louisville (-7) vs. 11 S. Florida (+265)
Best Bet: South Florida +7. Louisville enters this tournament ranked in the top 25 in adjusted offense and defense. But the Cardinals are banged up, and coach Pat Kelsey has yet to win an NCAA Tournament game. South Florida rolls into Buffalo on a 12-game winning streak. The Bulls are tanned, rested, and ready.
3 Michigan St. (-14.5) vs. 14 NDSU (+900)
Best Bet: Michigan State -14.5. Reggie Jackson was Mr. October. Derek Jeter was Mr. November. Tom Izzo is Mr. March. The Spartans (much like UConn) seem to peak whenever we turn the clocks forward. North Dakota State went 27-7 but played the 327th-ranked strength of schedule. Think Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Must be 21+ to participate. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV). GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
Friday - Philadelphia
7 UCLA (-6) vs. 10 UCF (+205)
Best Bet: UCF +6. The banged-up Bruins come into this tournament playing their best ball of the season. UCF slugged its way through the Big 12 with an impressive front four. A full-healthy UCLA squad wins this one easily, but the number tells us the Bruins aren't expected to be fully healthy.
2 UConn (-19.5) vs. 15 Furman (+2200)
Best Bet: UConn -19.5 Danny Hurley's pups may be licking their wounds after that Big East beatdown. But UConn has only lost one NCAA Tournament game in 3 years. The Big Dogs score the easy cover in Philly.
First Round - West Region
Friday - San Diego
1 Arizona (-29.5) vs. 16 LIU (+5000)
Best Bet: Arizona -29.5. The Wildcats clawed their way to the Big 12 title, own a 9-game winning streak, and finished 32-2 against ranked teams. The 'Cats went 20-12-1 ATS. They want to stake their claim as the Best Team In The Land. Thanks for coming, LIU.
8 Villanova (+1.5) vs. 9 Utah State (-135)
Best Bet: Utah State -2.5. This number quickly moved a point to -2.5 after the open. The Wildcats carry an immense March pedigree. But injuries and wear have taken their toll. Utah State arrived to take the Mountain West regular season and tournament title with a stat profile that travels well — averaging 82.8 PPG, shooting 47%, and holding opponents to just 70.6 points
21+. New customers in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY (excludes NY). Apply promotion in bet slip and place a $1+ cash wager (min odds -200) daily for 10 consecutive days starting day of account creation. FanCash rewards will equal the qualifying wager amount (max $100 FanCash/day). FanCash issued under this promotion expires at 11:59 p.m. ET 7 days from issuance. Terms, incl. FanCash terms, apply—see Fanatics Sportsbook app. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER, 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Thursday - Portland, Oregon
5 Wisconsin (-12.5) vs. 12 High Point (+650)
Best Bet: Wisconsin -12.5. The 12-seed upset narrative has legs. Just not here. High Point (30-4) is legitimately hot and owns the nation's top winning streak at 14 games. This number means the Badgers expect Nolan Winter back at center. And a fully healthy Wisconsin (20-14 ATS) lineup means one-and-done for the pesky Panthers.
4 Arkansas (-15.5) vs. 13 Hawai'i (+1200)
Best Bet: Arkansas -15.5. The Razorbacks wrapped up their first SEC title since 2000 on Sunday. Somewhere, the Basketball Gods want us to have a John Calipari-Rick Pitino matchup in this tournament because . . . 1996. The Rainbows check in with the No. 211 offense in the country. That's not going to get the cover here, especially against an Arkansas team that went an SEC-best 22-12 ATS.
6 BYU vs. 11 Texas/NC St. (NA)
Best Bet: TBD after First Four.
3 Gonzaga (-18.5) vs. 14 Kennesaw St. (+2200)
Best Bet: Gonzaga -18.5. The Zags (30-3) brag on WCC Player of the Year Graham Ike — the only active Division I player with at least 2,500 career points and 1,000 rebounds. Gonzaga owns all the March feels and won't have any issues playing this virtual home game in a city where they are 4-0.
Promo Code:BOOKIES
Must be 21+ to participate (18+ in KY). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, IA, KY, KS, LA, MD, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). CALL 1-800-MY-RESET (OH). CALL 1-877-770-STOP (LA). Must be present in LA (select parishes). Licensee partner Amelia Belle Casino. Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 or greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.
Friday - St. Louis
7 Miami (FL) (-2.5) vs. 10 Missouri (+130)
Best Bet: Miami -2.5. UM quietly transformed itself into a basketball school in recent years. The Hurricanes are 7-2 in their past two March Madness runs, reaching the Final Four in 2023 and Elite Eight in 2022. The Tigers limp into the tournament on 3 paws, losing their past three games. Don't let Miami's 22-point loss in the ACC Tournament worry you here.
2 Purdue (-23.5) vs. 15 Queens (+2200)
Best Bet: Purdue -23.5. The Boilermakers snagged the Big Ten title Sunday, knocking off No. 1 Michigan in the title game. No worries about a let-up here. Queens - a school of 1,900 students in Charlotte - is happy to be here. Purdue rolls big, despite being underwater at 14-20 ATS.
First Round - South Region
Friday - Tampa
1 Florida vs. 16 PVAMU/Lehigh (NA)
Best Bet: TBD after First Four.
8 Clemson (+1.5) vs. 9 Iowa (-135)
Best Bet: Iowa -1.5. A perfect Outback/ReliaQuest Bowl (basketball version) matchup. Both Iowa and Clemson enter the Big Dance with noticeable shortcomings. The Tigers fought through injuries all season. The Hawkeyes traditionally leave March like a lamb, having not won an NCAA Tournament game since 2021. Iowa wins the battle of attrition.
Promo Code: BOOKIESDYW
Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MO, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY or Washington, DC. New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. Min. qualifying bet amount: $1. Tokens max. bet amount: $25 per token. Tokens bet max. add'l winnings: $2,500 per token. Token(s) expire 14 days after receipt. Not reissued for voided/pushed bets. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start®. Gambling Problem? CO, IL, KY, MD, MI, MO, NJ, TN, VA, WV, WY, KS (Affiliated with Kansas Crossing Casino), ME (Licensed through the Mi’kmaq Nation, Penobscot Nation, and Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, federally recognized tribes located in the State of Maine), NC (Licensed through Tribal Casino Gaming Enterprise), PA (Affiliated with Harrah's Philadelphia): If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or MD: visit mdgamblinghelp.org or WV: visit 1800gambler.net; AZ: Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP; IN: Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT; IA: Call 1-800-BETSOFF; MA: Call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org, NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369); LA (Licensed through Horseshoe Bossier City and Caesars New Orleans) Call 1-800-522-4700, Washington, DC (OLG Class A licensed Operator): Call 1-800-MY-RESET. ©2026, Caesars Entertainment
Thursday - Oklahoma City
5 Vanderbilt (-12.5) vs. 12 McNeese (+410)
Best Bet: Vanderbilt -12.5. Did Vandy peak too soon? The Commodores' 16-0 start included two wins over Tennessee. They also sailed to a victory over the defending national champion Florida Gators in the SEC tournament. McNeese, the Southland Conference champs, face a Vanderbilt squad that dismantled the cream of the SEC this past week. This number opened at 10.5 but quickly spiked to 12.5. That's a good sign for the Commodores, who are otherwise 18-16 ATS.
4 Nebraska (-13.5) vs. 13 Troy St. (+850)
Best Bet: Troy St. +13.5 Nebraska brings a 0-8 record in the Big Dance. Nebraska is the better team and should finally end its tournament losing streak, but the psychological weight of 0-8 combined with a well-coached Sun Belt champion Troy squad that can pound the glass makes 13.5 a concerning number. The Big Red Curse cannot be stopped. Especially against a literal Trojan Horse.
7 St. Mary’s (-2.5) vs. 10 Texas A&M (+145)
Best Bet: St. Mary's -2.5. St. Mary's is the kind of methodical, experienced program that covers small spreads in tournament play. And 2.5 points is an extremely thin line. Randy Bennett's machine is primed to grind out a tight win the way they almost always do. Texas A&M's portal-built roster won't gel in time here.
2 Houston (-21.5) vs. 15 Idaho (+3000)
Best Bet: Houston -21.5. The Cougars fell 2.5 points short of a national title last year. Kelvin Sampson's 28-6 team fell just short to Arizona in the Big 12 title game. But it will handle business with ease here. Houston is built to blow out mid-majors with their elite defensive physicality and Sampson's disciplined system.
Promo Code: BOOKIESBG150
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
Thursday - Greenville, S.C.
6 UNC (-1.5) vs. 11 VCU (+120)
Best Bet: VCU +120 ML. The Tar Heels struggled without top scorer and rebounder Caleb Wilson (thumb), going 5-3 in his absence. VCU arrives at 27-7, winners of 16 of their last 17 games. An elite defensive A-10 champion on a massive winning streak makes VCU a tantalizing outright upset pick as a No. 11 seed. Especially when Duke appears to be winning everything else in sight. Maybe Jordon Hudson can lead the Heels' cheer squad?
3 Illinois (-23.5) vs. 14 Penn (+3500)
Best Bet: Illinois -23.5. The Illini own the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the entire country. This historically elite offense against a banged-up Penn team with zero power conference wins should be a blowout. Illini's defensive vulnerability against guards matters far less against an Ivy League team. No wonder this number ballooned from 20.5 to 23.5 points Sunday night.
First Round - Midwest Region
Thursday - Buffalo, N.Y.
1 Michigan vs. 6 UMBC/Howard (NA)
Best Bet: TBD after First Four.
8 Georgia (-2.5) vs. 9 St. Louis (+124)
Best Bet: Georgia -2.5. The Bulldogs earned an all-bark, no-bite March Madness reputation of late. Georgia won 5 of their 6 to close the regular season with a program-record 22 wins under Mike White. He's quietly built a dangerous squad led by guard Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.0 PPG). Robbie Avila's injury has been priced in here. Still, the 'Dawgs won't woof this time.
Must be 21+ to participate. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV). GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
Friday - Tampa
5 Texas Tech (-8.5) vs. 12 Akron (+320)
Best Bet: Texas Tech -7.5. Tech (16-16 ATS) enters the tournament with All-Big 12 First Team sophomore Christian Anderson (18.9 PPG) confirmed healthy after a scare at the Big 12 Tournament. Akron arrives as a legitimate threat, having set a school record with 29 wins and winning an unprecedented third straight MAC Tournament title. Tech has a proven tournament pedigree, an elite defensive system, and a fully healthy Anderson. This number opened at 8.5 but moved a point toward Akron.
4 Alabama (-13.5) vs. 13 Hofstra (+490)
Best Bet: Hofstra +13.5. The Tide lost its SEC Tournament opener to Ole Miss 80-79 and sputtered to a pedestrian 23-9 record overall. Hofstra is far more dangerous than their CAA pedigree suggests — they rank 4th nationally in interior defense, allowing just 44.2% shooting inside the arc all season with a dominant 7-foot center platoon, and an elite guard duo. That's good enough for the cover here.
Friday - Philadelphia
6 Tennessee vs. 11 Miami (OH) / SMU (NA)
Best Bet: TBD after First Four. But if Miami wins in Dayton, watch out.
3 Virginia (-17.5) vs. 14 Wright St. (+1400)
Best Bet: Virginia -17.5. The Cavaliers feature one of the most complete teams in the country and have a historically dominant interior defense that should absolutely stifle Wright State's attack-the-paint style. The Cavaliers' tournament history will make you sweat here, but this is precisely the kind of matchup its system and defense were built to stop.
21+. New customers in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY (excludes NY). Apply promotion in bet slip and place a $1+ cash wager (min odds -200) daily for 10 consecutive days starting day of account creation. FanCash rewards will equal the qualifying wager amount (max $100 FanCash/day). FanCash issued under this promotion expires at 11:59 p.m. ET 7 days from issuance. Terms, incl. FanCash terms, apply—see Fanatics Sportsbook app. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER, 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Friday - St. Louis
7 Kentucky (-2.5) vs. 10 Santa Clara (+136)
Best Bet: Santa Clara +136 ML. This is one of the most compelling 7-10 upset scenarios on the entire board. A 21-13 Kentucky team with injury concerns laying points to a 26-8 Santa Clara Broncos squad coached by a former UK assistant in Herb Sendek, who knows the program inside out. The status of Jayden Quaintance remains a concern. Cinderella wears spurs this time.
2 Iowa St. (-23.5) vs. 15 Tennessee St (+2000)
Best Bet: Iowa St. -23.5. The Cyclones (27-7) enter The Big Dance as one of the most balanced squads in the country, led by Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jackson, and Tamin Lipsey, combining for 47.3 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game, holding opponents to just 65.1 points per game. Tennessee State is just happy to be here.
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Schedule
Here are our key March Madness Picks & Best Bets key dates to mark on your calendar and upcoming schedule:
- First Four: Tuesday & Wednesday
- First round: Thursday & Friday
- Second round: March 21-23
- Sweet 16: March 26-27
- Elite Eight: March 28-29
- Final Four: Saturday, April 4
- National championship game: Monday, April 6
Promo Code:BOOKIES
Must be 21+ to participate (18+ in KY). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, IA, KY, KS, LA, MD, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). CALL 1-800-MY-RESET (OH). CALL 1-877-770-STOP (LA). Must be present in LA (select parishes). Licensee partner Amelia Belle Casino. Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 or greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: What The Sportsbooks Say
Patrick Berbert, College Basketball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook, checked in with kobe.bookies.com Sunday night. Here's what he had to say.
On Overall Expectations For The Tournament:
We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season. The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field. From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again. College basketball has been a phenomenal product all season, and the television ratings reflect that, as it was reportedly the most-watched regular season ever.” We anticipate SMU/Miami OH, Utah St/Villanova, High Point/Wisconsin, and the winner of NC State/Texas vs BYU to be highly-wagered First Round games.
On Favorites No. 1 Seeds Duke, Michigan, Florida & Arizona,
Duke enters the tournament as the current title favorite at +295. They’ve been dealing with some injuries lately, but they’re expected to get Patrick Ngbonga back, which should give them a boost heading into the tournament. Michigan, meanwhile, cooled off a bit after its scorching start, and the injury to LJ Cason could be significant. Florida had some struggles during non-conference play, but really found its stride in SEC action. With a roster full of experienced players, they’ll be a tough out. Arizona may be the most battle-tested of the group, given the schedule they’ve played and the consistency they’ve shown all season. All four teams have earned their position near the top of the odds board.
Potential Cinderellas This Year
As for potential Cinderella teams, South Florida stands out. First-year head coach Bryan Hodgson, who came over from Arkansas State, has them playing an exciting style. They push the pace, shoot a high volume of threes and rebound well. From a betting perspective, Saint Louis and Miami (OH) are also drawing early attention as possible Cinderella teams that could make a run in the tournament.
Here's what Michael Ranftle, Senior Trader, BetMGM, had to say about his book's liabilities.
Among the favorites, UConn, Florida, and St. John's are our biggest liabilities to win the tournament. Duke and Arizona have been popular with bettors, but are the best outcomes of the title contenders for the sportsbook.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit http://gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit http://ccpg.org (CT), or visit http://www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in NH/OR/ONT/PR. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Min. $5 first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Plus, upon qualifying bet placement, get 1 100% Profit Boost Token, valid only for a NCAA Tournament Winner bet. Max. Bet: $10. Profit Boost Tokens are single-use and expire on 4/6/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Must select Token BEFORE placing bet. Boost only applies to winnings. Ends 4/6/26 11:59 PM ET. Terms: https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos.
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Betting Stats
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Major Bets Of Note
- $100,000 to win $600,000 on Purdue to Final Four
- $50,000 to win $450,000 on Houston +900
- $50,000 to win $225,000 on Arizona +450
- $25,000 to win $225,000 on UConn +900
- $25,000 to win $275,000 on Houston +1100
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Line Movement (Open to Current)
- Michigan +2500 to +325
- Duke +1000 to +333
- Arizona +4000 to +475
- Florida +2000 to +600
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Highest Ticket %
- Michigan 12.0%
- Duke 10.0%
- Arizona 8.0%
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Highest Handle %
- Michigan 14.8%
- Florida 12.4%
- Arizona 11.9%
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Biggest Liability
- Florida
- Miami (OH)
- UConn
- (All Odds Vis BetMGM)
Promo Code: BOOKIESDYW
Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MO, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY or Washington, DC. New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. Min. qualifying bet amount: $1. Tokens max. bet amount: $25 per token. Tokens bet max. add'l winnings: $2,500 per token. Token(s) expire 14 days after receipt. Not reissued for voided/pushed bets. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start®. Gambling Problem? CO, IL, KY, MD, MI, MO, NJ, TN, VA, WV, WY, KS (Affiliated with Kansas Crossing Casino), ME (Licensed through the Mi’kmaq Nation, Penobscot Nation, and Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, federally recognized tribes located in the State of Maine), NC (Licensed through Tribal Casino Gaming Enterprise), PA (Affiliated with Harrah's Philadelphia): If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or MD: visit mdgamblinghelp.org or WV: visit 1800gambler.net; AZ: Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP; IN: Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT; IA: Call 1-800-BETSOFF; MA: Call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org, NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369); LA (Licensed through Horseshoe Bossier City and Caesars New Orleans) Call 1-800-522-4700, Washington, DC (OLG Class A licensed Operator): Call 1-800-MY-RESET. ©2026, Caesars Entertainment
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: All-Time Longshots To Win
Going back to the expansion of the field to 64 teams in 1985, here's a look as the longest pre=tournament odds for the NCCA winner.
| odds | YEAR | Team | SEED | FINAL OPP. | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +9500 | 2014 | UConn | No. 7 | Kentucky | 60-54 |
| +3500 | 1985 | Villanova | No. 8 | G'town | 66-64 |
| +2500 | 2011 | UConn | No. 3 | Butler | 53-41 |
| +2000 | 1988 | Kentucky | No. 6 | Oklahom | 83-79 |
| +1800 | 1997 | Arizona | No, 6 | Kentucky | 84-79 (OT) |
| +1600 | 2023 | UConn | No. 4 | San Diego | 76-59 |
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Betting Trends To Watch
Here's a look at some trends and history surrounding the March Madness top seeds:
- Most times seeded No. 1: North Carolina (18)
- All four No. 1 seeds made Final Four: Twice (2008, 2025)
- No No. 1 seeds made Final Four: Four (1980, 2006, 2011, 2023)
- Championship games featuring two No. 1 seeds: 11 (1982, 1983, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2015, 2017, 2021, 2024, 2025)
- Championship game featuring no No. 1 seeds (modern era): Eight
- Only team to beat three No. 1 seeds: Arizona (1997 - beat No. 1 Kansas in Elite Eight, No. 1 North Carolina in Final Four, No. 1 Kentucky in championship game)
Promo Code: BOOKIES
Must be 21+ and present in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, NC, OH, TN, or VA. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, LA, MD, NC, OH, VA). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), Call (800)-327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org in MA. Call or text REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Best Finish By Seed
In all the No. 1 see has won 26 national championships since the NCAA Tournament expanded to its current (legitimate) 64-team field in 1985,
| SEED | BEST FINISH | TIMES |
|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | National Champion | 26 |
| No. 2 | National Champion | 5 |
| No. 3 | National Champion | 4 |
| No. 4 | National Champion | 2 |
| No. 5 | Runner-up | 4 |
| No. 6 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 7 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 8 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 9 | Final Four | 2 |
| No. 10 | Final Four | 1 |
| No. 11 | Final Four | 6 |
| No. 12 | Elite Eight | 2 |
| No. 13 | Sweet 16 | 3 |
| No. 14 | Sweet 16 | 2 |
| No. 15 | Elite Eight | 2 |
| No. 16 | Second round | 2 |
Must be 21+ to participate. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV). GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: SU Record By Seed
The No. 1 rocks on the moneyline, going 537-134 (.800) straight-up in the NCAA Tournament going back to 1939. In all, seeds 1 through 5 are historically above water in terms of winning straight up. Here's a look.
| Seed | Overall record |
| No. 1 | 537-134 |
| No. 2 | 373-155 |
| No. 3 | 294-156 |
| No. 4 | 250-158 |
| No. 5 | 183-160 |
| No. 6 | 168-159 |
| No. 7 | 141-159 |
| No. 8 | 113-159 |
| No. 9 | 98-160 |
| No. 10 | 97-159 |
| No. 11 | 105-160 |
| No. 12 | 81-160 |
| No. 13 | 39-160 |
| No. 14 | 25-160 |
| No. 15 | 16-160 |
| No. 16 | 2-160 |
21+. New customers in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY (excludes NY). Apply promotion in bet slip and place a $1+ cash wager (min odds -200) daily for 10 consecutive days starting day of account creation. FanCash rewards will equal the qualifying wager amount (max $100 FanCash/day). FanCash issued under this promotion expires at 11:59 p.m. ET 7 days from issuance. Terms, incl. FanCash terms, apply—see Fanatics Sportsbook app. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER, 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Betfair Casino No Deposit Free Spins April 2026: Claim 100 Free Spins 
Betfair Casino Bonus Code Ireland April 2026: Get up to 150 Free Spins 
NBA Same Game Parlay: NBA Warriors vs. Celtics - March 18th, 2026 
Speed Sweeps Casino Promo Code: SpeedSweeps Social Casino Review - March 10th, 2026 
High 5 Casino No Deposit Bonus For FREE Play Rated: Claim New Sweeps Bonus For April 2026 
Best Social Casinos for March 2026: Best 10 Social Casinos Online US Updated - March 18, 2026
Comments