Kalshi Trades $105M On Oscars As Best Actor Outpaces Best Picture For Top Volume

By Bill Speros

Mar 16th, 2026 1:38 PM EDT

Kalshi traded more than $105 million on its multiple Oscars markets, figures posted on the platform show. The prediction market hosted markets on more than a dozen categories, including those on who might attend the ceremony. This was the third year Kalshi offered Oscar trades. The platform traded $29.6 million in total Oscars volume in 2025 and just $2.3 million two years ago.

The biggest market on the site was in the Best Actor category. Michael B. Jordan snagged the statue for his dual role in Sinners. He initially trailed the field behind Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) when Oscar markets were first posted and through the early part of awards season. Jordan moved into the top spot after his win at The Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards).

Of the $105M In Oscar Trades on Kalshi, than $25.5 million was traded on Best Actor, compared to $25.3 million on Best Picture. One Battle After Another took the night's most-coveted prize, beating Sinners. In all, One Battle captures 6 awards, compared to 4 from Sinners. Ryan Coogler's vampire send-up Sinners posted a record 16 nominations this year.

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Oscars Trading Breakdown - Behind Kalshi's Numbers

Kalshi, for comparison, traded more than $914 million on Super Bowl 60. That included both game and non-game related markets. Among the biggest volume markets, "Bad Bunny's First Song" was included. That market absorbed $115.5 million in volume, outpacing the entire sports betting handle for the game from the state of Nevada. Of course, trading volume does not directly equate to sports betting handle. Industry experts say a good rule of thumb is to divide trading volume by five to get its sports-betting handle equivalence.

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Best Supporting Actress Down To The Wire

The closest race of the night among the major awards came in the Best Supporting Actress category. Amy Madigan traded at 44% (44 cents to win $1) before the ceremony for her role in Weapons. She was followed by Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) at 29% and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) 24%.

Madigan captured the Critics' Choice trophy. Traders and oddsmakers at the best betting sites installed Taylor (-185) as a slight favorite over Madigan (+160) after the nominations were announced. Taylor's price peaked at -280 and 70 cents to win $1 at Kalshi before Mosaku's win at the Baftas. Mosaku subsequently overtook Madigan for the No. 2 spot in this market and saw her price spike from +600 to +240. But heading into the Awards, Madigan held the commanding lead after being as low as 10 cents to win $1 on Kalshi last fall.

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About the Author

Bill Speros

More About Bill

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

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